The most accurate measure of Stock Market Sentiment is the Daily Index Sentiment^©

Published here by the W. B. Busin Group.

August 31, 2009         1940 ET  /  2340 UTC         

On Friday, we stated that the daily sentiment indexes seemed "locked in neutral providing the conclusion that the markets have not "decided" which way to go, upward or downward out of this structure."  Today, the sentiment indexes unlocked or are very close to unlocking price.  We expect an upward move, and quite possibly a significant move for the U.S.A. indexes and all the global indexes.

If you are not checking our near-the-closing projections at 1530 EDT / 1930 UTC, we suggest you do if a closing indication helps resolve a position at the closing.

Note the annotations in red on the second graph are meant to highlight the different tracks that the sentiments reach toward, or, into the Bullish zone for a bias toward long positions. 

August 28, 2009         1900 EDT

The daily sentiment indexes seem locked in neutral providing the conclusion that the markets have not "decided" which way to go, upward or downward out of this structure.

Seeing what can be seen on the chart is at the heart technical analysis.  During periods where session after session is characterized by low volume and small index price movement, traders should enter when expectations are clear.  If the expected movement does not happen, one must exit. 

The very old trading saying of "Don't short a dull market" has come to our minds and conversations often in recent weeks. With traditional phasing structure still incomplete for a high, We still expect the completion and resolution to be upward next week. 

Since 1 to 2 hours of spiking price moves have characterized the rally from March, so we expect this to continue into the high, and beyond.

Next week will be interesting watching the USD, crude and the indexes struggle to break loose from the ambivalence.

August 27, 2009         1930 ET

The daily movement of our sentiment indexes points to higher prices for the stock indexes.  We expect several sessions to complete this leg of the upward trend from the July 10th low.

The USD is cooperating by remaining in downward sloping yet lateral corrective triangle.  The triangle forms in preparation for a near term breakout reversal.  Perhaps a new upward trend for the USD will begin with that breakout.

August 26, 2009         1900 ET

We expect the daily sentiment indexes to reach a bit lower tomorrow.  We expect index price declines as well. 

The decline could be the end of the current corrective formation.

Watch for a reversal from slightly lower levels than where USD is tracking.  USD is a wee bit overbought with only corrective lateral daily action over the past weeks.

August 25, 2009         1900 ET

The daily sentiment index remains in neutral.  Price can continue this brief corrective and reverse upward quite soon. 

We would prefer a lower level for the daily sentiment index to begin the move upward.

August 24, 2009         1900 ET

Still higher to go for both price and sentiments with a bit more volatility for price.

August 21, 2009         1940 ET

The stock market sentiment measures continued higher, as index prices followed through by setting in new intraday highs and new high closing prices.

Today's action in the USD showed many signs of confirming a possible tradeable low setting in quite soon.

August 20, 2009         1950 ET

Sentiments rose again in the neutral zone as the USD appears to be headed for at least few more hours of downward action.  We still expect the downward resolution, but the indexes appear to be prepared to move higher again.

August 19, 2009         1950 ET

Sentiments remain in neutral as the USD and other markets "decide" where they are going next.  We still expect the downward resolution, but it may take longer than we expected it would 2 weeks ago.

August 18, 2009         1900 ET

Yesterday, the sentiments pointed to a modest rally, and so it was.  Yet, it may not be complete at today's closing. 

Sentiments return to neutral and that allows for another upward session.

August 17, 2009         1900 ET

Sentiments allow for a potential bounce is available for a counter trend corrective move - only potential and intraday.  Tomorrow's closing is important as is the USD's track tomorrow.

August 17, 2009  Special Update

Much will be made of the decline that began this evening.  It will be called the beginning of the next CRASH!  Fear will rise dramatically.  Remain calm and, observe this fear phenomenon.  It is the opposite of the excitement seen when index prices rise dramatically.

If the down move lasts longer than 1 session, then watch for a brief exhaustion of the fear.  Then a brief bounce or lateral workoff of the excess fear.

Then take profits