The most accurate measure of Stock Market Sentiment is the Daily Index Sentiment©

Published here by the W. B. Busin Group.

April 30, 2009   2200 ET  -

We don't view the sentiments as signalling a sell just yet.  This small dip today is more likely a rest before moving higher into the bearish zone.  This move upward could complete a temporary setting of a high next week.

A move higher is more likely now than yesterday.

April 29, 2009   2200 ET  -

Sentiments closing in on a sell.  Price still tracking within the channel.  The sell setup is quite available now but waiting for more technical confirmation is a rule of the trading plan isn't it.

April 28, 2009   2300 ET  -

Sentiments holding in the neutral zone as FOMC announcement approaches tomorrow.  We expect a downward bias choppy action as the uncertain financial stressing continues and the swine flu grabs attention in media and rumor factories.

April 27, 2009   2200 ET  -

Stock market sentiment appears confused when price, volumes, and structure are in conflict.  That condition reflects the confused and uncertain traders and investors attempting to discount news and data that is unexpected.

We expect the price to hold inside the upward channel for the short term and for sentiment to resolve to one of the extremes this week.

April 24, 2009   2200 ET  -

Sentiments rallied a wee bit and likely will continue the push upwards into the FOMC.  The reaction to the parameters of the so-called "stress test" for banks was positive.   And, the positive rumours that U.S. bank equity leverage ratios are generally in fair shape are keeping financials and tech sectors rising.

Sentiments here are in caution mode after 3 peaks over 80 this month.

April 23, 2009   2200 ET  -

Still in the corrective phasing and the break did not come.   This narrow trading spread could continue through the FOMC meeting, and beyond.   Right out till Federal banking professors return the graded stress test papers to with each bank's CEO with the grade, Pass or Fail, transparently emblazoned on the foreheads of each CEO.

Sentiments reflect the directionless markets and lackluster volumes.

April 22, 2009   2200 ET  -

The sentiment broke downward in the final hour as did the indexes.  The pitch downward should either signal a hard break downward for the indexes, or a breaker run upward.  The latter is the lower probability but structure could support that type of an acceleration.  Yet many technical indicators are not pointing to short term strength. 

In our view, the action since Friday's high is still just a corrective leg of an uptrend from the March 6/9th lows. 

We remain short the indexes.

April 21, 2009   2200 ET  -

Splitting the neutral zone, the sentiments allow for another small upward and then a resumption of the downward corrective move in tomorrow's session.  The corrective has been an elegant move so far.  Wherein price tells the retail trader story and volume and sentiments control the big picture.  The NYSE is a simple marvel of price movement and structure, because it isn't traded much anymore.

The indexes continue to show all signs of a simple corrective phase downward in an upward trend.  And, so do numerous sector measures.  All indexes breathe in and out, just like the people who make them a market to trade.

April 20, 2009   2200 ET  -

The extremes of sentiment usually produce a significant price reaction in the opposite direction of prior trend.  Here it is again.  The sentiments remain in the neutral zone which augurs for more downward action in the next session or two.  

April 17, 2009   2200 ET  -

 As we stated yesterday,

"The diagonal triangle seen on most intraday charts is the barrier to a higher move.  The QQQQ's and the NDX are back inside the triangle on closing so now, it's up to traders and investors to keep the trend tracking upward and out of the triangle."

and,

"Follow through is the next step "required" for continuation - who knows how far the indexes can go." 

No followthrough today.  None of the indexes, or any major mover stocks broke above their respective upper trendline of the triangle today. 

We expect Monday to be at least the beginning of a modest pullback intraday (morning session) with traders trying to "save it" in midsession.  We believe the failure there could lead the indexes back downward and potentially below the contracting triangle. 

With these two sentiments and other more sensitive sentiment indicators spiking into Bearish zone, we view the next move as downward for the indexes.  Perhaps the AAPL traders can suspend these levels for the stock and the NDX for another session or two, but why bet on high risk of the typical selloff after earnings?

April 16, 2009

A false drop in the morning session set in a low for the run upwards in the late session.  Investors traded with good size and brought the daytrading retail public back into the ETF's and index options and as well as, index futures.

Daytrader sentiment jumped quickly on a spike and our morning expectation scenario (to member subscribers) began to unfold.  The if/then and if not/then was a view that the indexes were either going to fail on an upward move or would begin a more substantial move upward in today's session. 

The diagonal triangle seen on most intraday charts is the barrier to a higher move.  The QQQQ's and the NDX are back inside the triangle on closing so now, it's up to traders and investors to keep the trend tracking upward and out of the triangle.

Sentiments point to plenty of room before extremes set in and turn the indexes downward or laterally for a corrective.

Follow through is the next step "required" for continuation - who knows how far the indexes can go.